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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."